WASHINGTON / HAVANA —
The United States is dramatically increasing economic and diplomatic pressure on Cuba, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio playing a key role in shaping an aggressive strategy that critics say is less about negotiation and more about forcing political transformation in the island nation.

Rubio, a Cuban-American and influential voice in Republican foreign policy, has long advocated a hardline approach to Havana, arguing that the communist government must end before meaningful normalization can occur. In recent months he has reinforced U.S. sanctions, blocked critical oil supplies and affirmed Washington’s desire for “regime change,” though officials frame the goal as supporting the Cuban people’s freedom rather than direct intervention.

Mounting Pressure and Humanitarian Impact

The island’s economy is now under severe strain as U.S. sanctions tighten, especially after policies were enacted in early 2025 that re-designated Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism and restricted financial transactions, remittances and foreign ties. The Trump administration has gone a step further, issuing tariffs threatening countries that supply oil to Cuba, effectively choking off key energy lifelines from Venezuela and Mexico.

The results have been stark:

• 
  Rolling blackouts, severe fuel shortages and widespread disruption of daily life as energy reserves dwindle.
  

• Jet fuel shortages forcing airlines to suspend service and impacting travel and commerce.
  

• Food and medical supply constraints exacerbating existing hardships.
  
  

Cuba’s government, led by President Miguel Díaz-Canel, has implemented rationing to maintain essential services such as healthcare and education, but remains defiant and insists that it will not negotiate over its political system.

Diplomacy, Dialogue and Division

Despite intense pressure, Havana officials have expressed willingness to engage in talks on specific issues with the United States, though they reject any conditions tied to changes in Cuba’s constitution or governance structure. Cuba’s deputy foreign minister said dialogue could focus on areas like drug trafficking cooperation, but insisted sovereignty must be respected.

Amid the deepening crisis, Mexico has sent significant humanitarian aid to Cuba — including food and essential supplies — attempting to balance support for the Cuban people with diplomatic relations with both Havana and Washington. Meanwhile, Russia has pledged financial assistance in defiance of U.S. pressure, illustrating the growing geopolitical dynamics surrounding the island.

Rubio’s Role and Broader Strategy

Rubio’s influence on U.S. Cuba policy reflects both longstanding political views and strategic calculations. Since the January 3, 2026, U.S. military operation that ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro — a critical Cuban ally — Washington’s pressure campaign on Havana has intensified. Experts contend Rubio’s hardline stance now drives much of the administration’s approach, with an emphasis on economic isolation and political pressure rather than direct military engagement.

In a recent Senate hearing, Rubio reiterated that sanctions and the embargo will remain in place until there is meaningful political change in Cuba — and anchored his view in longstanding U.S. law requiring a regime change before lifting key elements of the economic embargo.

Human Toll and International Outlook

Critics warn that without a viable diplomatic path, the U.S. strategy may deepen humanitarian suffering and destabilize Cuban society, potentially provoking unrest, migration pressures and strained regional relations. Analysts argue that the strategy risks strengthening hardliners in Havana while alienating ordinary Cubans struggling with daily hardship.

As discussions continue in international capitals, the debate continues over whether maximum pressure will ultimately weaken the Cuban government or merely inflict hardship on Cuba’s population without achieving political goals.

Sources: Al Jazeera, Financial Times, AP News, Reuters, The Guardian