Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins with Above-Normal Activity Forecast for 2025

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially started on June 1, with meteorologists forecasting a notably active period ahead. Experts are urging residents in hurricane-prone regions to take preparedness measures seriously, as current conditions suggest the potential for more intense and frequent storms compared to average years.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts between 13 and 19 named storms this season. Of these, 6 to 10 could strengthen into hurricanes, including 3 to 5 major hurricanes categorized as Category 3 or higher. This forecast is based on a combination of atmospheric and oceanic factors, including above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean, which are conducive to storm formation and intensification.

Colorado State University’s hurricane research team has released a similar outlook, estimating around 17 named storms, with 9 expected to become hurricanes and 5 likely reaching major hurricane status.

One of the key contributing factors to the anticipated increase in activity is the presence of neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. This neutral phase typically results in lower vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, providing a more favorable environment for tropical storm development. Additionally, the continuation of a multi-decadal period of heightened hurricane activity—known as the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation—supports the outlook for a busier season.

For the fourth year in a row, the season has begun without a named storm forming prior to its official start. While early-season storms can occur—typically around mid to late June—the absence of pre-season storms is not a reliable indicator of how active the remainder of the season will be.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Alvin became the first named storm of the season after forming south of Mexico. Although the storm poses minimal direct threats to coastal areas, it is expected to generate large swells and dangerous rip currents along the southwestern coast of Mexico.

In the Caribbean, the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management (ODPM) in Trinidad and Tobago has reminded residents of the importance of disaster readiness. Citizens are encouraged to develop emergency plans, secure property, assemble basic supplies, and stay informed through official channels. The ODPM also advises contacting local disaster management units for guidance and support throughout the season.

Authorities across the region emphasize that early preparation can significantly reduce risks to life and property during hurricanes. As the peak of the season typically falls between August and October, officials stress that now is the time to act.

Sources: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): www.noaa.gov, Newsday (Trinidad and Tobago): www.newsday.co.tt, New York Post: www.nypost.com, Fox Weather: www.foxweather.com